Thursday, July 24, 2014

Pre Market Thoughts and 15 Range Thoughts Friday

  
                                              ES/NQ Ten Day 60 minute chart
Support and Resistance Key. White Lines: multi price levels and trend lines, Yellow Lines: daily chart major price points, Solid Green/Red Lines: prior day high and lows,  Dotted Green/Red lines: pivot points, Light Blue Lines: prior unfilled gaps. Does not include overnight highs and lows. Price Points to watch.
  • 1986
  • 1984
  • 1979.50
  • 1975.50
  • 1972.50
  • 1971
  • 1965.5
Pre Market Thoughts -  15 Minute Daily Range Trade
The night before I form a hypothesis of how I will approach the day if the market gaps up or down. Preparing the night before takes out emotion considering a trade. To be successful in trading master ONE setup before tackling another. Study it, own it and turn off the computer after the trade. To help traders I will give my thoughts on the 15 minute range. To fade the High/Low of the range or go with the break.

15 Minute Range Goal: One trade a day on the first break of the 15 minute range. 2 point stop and 2 point target if fading against the trend and 2.25 target if going with the trend. If price trades 1.75 points automatically move stop to entry. With study, discipline and devotion to one setup you can build your success rate to 65% plus over time.

How to succeed:
  • One day at a time devoting yourself to the same setup day after day.Think, sleep and eat your setup.
  • Skill is developed by hours and hours of working on your craft. Small advantages hammered out day by day.
  • Everyday write 3 things you learned from your setup.
  • An oak tree will not fall by hitting it at 20 different locations but by hitting it at the same spot day after day. 
  • Dont be afraid to make a decision. Dont be afraid to fail and have a losing trade. You will not be perfect.
Factors to consider in a trade setup:
  • Previous Day Price: Closed above, below or between the five minute 5 and 60 SMA
  • Was the previous day a Breakout day, continuation day or flat
  • Volume Today: is the early volume strong pushing through a support and resistance zone. Is volume average and price bumping up to a support or resistance zone.
  • Early Trading pattern: Is the trend strong or weak. Is the first 5 minute candle red or green. What is the volume on that candle.
  • Ticks Today: Strong, weak, supporting a BO/BD or diverging supporting a fade.
  • Support / Resistance points.
Trend Thoughts:  
  • Longer Term remains in a bullish up trend

  • ES - 15 MINUTE RANGE THOUGHTS 
    (SV-Strong Volume through Support or Resistance, V-Volume, Negative/Positive=opening price)

    Break of the 15 minute Range HIGH
    Average V
    Favor
    Strong V
    Favor
    Up Gap Positive & filled gap:

    Fade
    BO
    Up Gap Positive & gap not filled:
    -Consolidation with 5sma support favor BO
    Fade
    Fade
    Up Gap Negative & filled gap:
    Fade
    Fade
    Up Gap Negative & gap not filled:               
    -Consolidation with 5sma support favor BO
    Fade
    Fade

    Up Gap Straight Up, 3 green 5 minute candles with SV: Long on break of 30 minute range or break of Narrow range candle long.

    3 Green 5 minute candles with Average Volume into Resistance  = Fade

    Flat opening & positive:
    Fade
    BO
    Flat opening & negative:
    -Consolidation with 5sma support favor BO
    Fade
    Fade



    Down Gap Positive & filled gap:
    Fade
    BO
    Down Gap Positive & gap not filled:
    -Strong V bounce off support favor BO
    Fade
    Fade
    Down Gap Negative & filled gap:
    -Strong V bounce off support favor BO
    Fade
    Fade
    Down Gap Negative & gap not filled:
    -Strong V bounce off support favor BO
    Fade
    Fade

    Break of the 15 minute Range LOW
    Average V
    Favor
    Strong V
    Favor
    Up Gap Positive & filled gap:
    Fade
    Fade
    Up Gap Positive & gap not filled:
    Fade
    Fade
    Up Gap Negative & filled gap:
    -Super Strong V & 15 minute full red down candle BD
    Fade
    Fade
    Up Gap Negative & gap not filled:
    -Super Strong V & 15 minute full down red candle BD
    Fade
    Fade

    Down Gap Straight Down, 3 red 5 minute candles with SV: Short on break of 30 minute range or Fade if at support with first test

    3 Red 5 minute candles with Average Volume into Resistance  = Fade

    Flat opening & positive:
    Fade
    Fade
    Flat opening & negative:
    Fade
    Fade



    Down Gap Positive & filled gap:
    Fade
    Fade
    Down Gap Positive & gap not filled:
    Fade
    Fade
    Down Gap Negative & filled gap:
    Fade
    Fade
    Down Gap Negative & gap not filled:
    -Strong Volume with support Fade, if room to support BD
    Fade
    Fade/ BD
ES - GAP THOUGHTS
    (2 point Stop with a 2.25 exit goal. Stop to even at 1.75 points, enter in first 5 minutes or pass)
    • Gap Fade Short: Fade off 1983 Area
    • Gap Fade Long: Fade off 1976 area
    • Gap GO Long: Over 1986 area out before resistance
    • Gap GO Short: Pass
    Always study the overnight trading and mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading, pullbacks and breakout/breakdowns.


    * You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.

    Disclaimer

    I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES - I JUST POST TRADES I MAKE OR FIT THE RULES OF MY TRADING PLAN ON A DAILY BASIS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS! ALL CHARTS COURTESY OF TRADESTATION, SCHWAb & TD AMERITRADE