Thursday, August 31, 2017

Fantasy Football Preview 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Preview

Favorite time of year with Fantasy football and the NFL kicking off in a week. To help you prepare for your draft/drafts here is a basic winning strategy I use year after year to year that will help you qualify for the end of season playoffs.

1. Focus on getting younger players who have yet to get their big $ contract  - they are more motivated
2. Shy away from players with an injury history or received their big $ contract
3. Load up skill players (WR/RB), depth is key in FF, and take QB and TE late in your draft
4. Use the waiver wire week to week to pick a Defensive team against a week Offensive  (Jets, Jags, bears)

QUARTERBACKS:

1. Skip drafting any of the top 10 QB's and focus on drafting skill players RB/WR to fill your team early on in the draft. Very little drop off with QB's 5 through 20 and you can draft 2 mid range QB's to rotate each week based on the their defensive match-up. I prefer waiting until at least the 8th round before taking a QB and will take backup skill players before taking my QB.
2.Focus on the mid range Qb's: Winston, Rivers, Dalton, Eli - they are all loaded with WR talent and you can target late in your draft.
3.QB that could have a big year is Andy Dalton: Loaded at WR, Stud TE and strong running game. Could see a Matt Ryan Season. Mariotta could finally break out this year, if he siting on the boards after the first 9 QB's are gone then snap him up.
4.QB that could bust - Cousins (new WR core) , Carr (off the injury). Luck (cant stay healthy) or any Qb that wont stand for the national anthem.
5. Super Sleeper - Goff from the Rams.. has a nice RB, New Ofensive Coor and deep ball threat in Sammy Hammy Watkins.

RUNNING BACKS:

The RB position, by nature, is extremely volatile and very hard to predict.  Consistently 5 out of the top 10 fantasy RB's ranked before the season end up being busts due to injury, age, arrested or skill drop off. I like to load up on running backs, especially late in the draft, and will draft up to 6RB on a team on only 4WR.

I prefer getting one RB in the first 4 or 5 rounds, another before round 6 and then loaded up on the RB position in the back end of the draft with younger backups that have the potential move into the role of starter and be a high volume player ( Henry from Tennessee, Coleman from Atl, )

Here are the top 12 preseason RB's and thoughts:

- D. Johnson Arz - Stub, grab him if you can, a mack truck when on the field
- Bell, Pittsburgh - Another stud but has yet to play a full season in 3 years and missed all preseason holding out - a stud when on the filed but Ill pass unless late first round if there and take WR - if you take him be sure to get his backup
- McCoy - Ton of miles and bad Offense, will pass on him and betting on a bust year despite being a fan of this player
- Jordan Howard - young but on a bad team - like that he catches the ball and potential for monster season  -would take early 2nd
- Gordon, Chargers - See above but with Rivers at QB this may open up more lanes.
- Freeman Alt - concussion in the preseason and shares the ball with Coleman, 3rd round earliest to take
- Murray Tenn - See Mccoy as he has a ton of miles on him,his  backup will steal carries - betting on as a bust by season end.
- Ajayi Dolphins - Will get a heavy load, but only had 2 monster games last year and then zip- early third round - could boom or bust
- Miller Texans - disappointment last year, could see bounce back as his stock is low, crowd tends to be wrong and he could surprise this year in a major way
- Gurly Rams - see above - everyone down on him, would take if in the 3rd round and see a bounce back year
- Hyde SF - monster preseason and new offensive coordinator focusing on him - if he can finally stay healthy could be top 5 back.
- Fournette  - rookie on a bad team - I prefer passing on rookies early on in the draft.

Backs I like for a Breakout Year: Hyde, Hunt from KC, Miller, West Baltimore and rookie Cook

Backs that may go bust: Mccoy, Freeman, Anderson - Denver, Murray, Fournette, Blount, and Lacy from Sea.

As for Elliot who may be the 2nd best player in fantasy - provided he doesn't beat up his girlfriend again or get arrested for some other violation, he is suspended 6 games plus out a bye week - basically sits on your bench half the season.  Not worth the risk, pass unless its round 6.

WIDE RECEIVER:

Extremely Deep Position - take 4 good ones, rotate week to week and load up on RB's on your bench.

Extremely High on Mike Evans who could be a top 3 WR this year and will being looking to get paid after this season - also Cook from New England with Superman throwing him the ball.

WR I am staying away from or could disappoint: Odel (attitude), Dez Bryant (always hurt and he is a Cowboy), Keenan Allen (always hurt),

WR that could break out: Williams Chargers, Parker -Dolphins, Garson SF (only Wr on a garbage team), Alshon on the Eagles (playing on a one year deal, big season means he gets paid), and Diggs from Minn

Very High on AJ Green and if available mid first round would snag him over Odel.

Deep Sleeper: Nelson Agular Eagles and Anderson from the Jets (team is terrible will be playing from behind and need to throw the ball)

TIGHT END:

Take one late (after the 10th round) as most of these TE give you similar stats- skip the top 5 (gronk and Reed are studs but cant stay healthy)

Sleeper I love - Austin Hooper ATL - Is now Ryan's 2nd target and this kid played extremely well as a rookie in the playoffs last year.

TE ready to take the next step - Ertz Eagles - ton of talent, if he can just find the damn endzone will be a monster this year.

Other late sleepers: Ebron (big talent), Clay from Buffalo.

KICKER: take with your last pick - prefer kickers from average Offensive's that struggle to get in the endzone and will kick more FG (eagles, Minn, Bal, Redskins, KC)

TEAM DEFENSE:  Take your D second to last pick. Draft the Bills and there average D as they play the Jets week one and the Jets are horrific on offense. Week to week I like to cut my D and pick one off the waiver wire that is playing a weak Offensive or rookie QB's.

Here is and excellent fantasy football site run by 3 sisters Her Fantasy Football​

http://herfantasyfootball.com/

Can find on SiriusXM and on their site they offer rankings on all players and positions - They also provide a nice draft cheat cheat sheet for you to download and reference during your draft.

TRADING PLANS 




* The market direction refers to when the trade was entered. Up is all three SMA trending Up, down is all three are trending Down, Mix is mixed or choppy market to then refer to 200SMA for preferred market direction)

* You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.

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Disclaimer

I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES - I JUST POST TRADES I MAKE OR FIT THE RULES OF MY TRADING PLAN ON A DAILY BASIS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS! ALL CHARTS COURTESY OF TRADESTATION, SCHWAb & TD AMERITRADE