Saturday, April 19, 2014

Pre Market Thoughts Monday and Weekly Chart ES and NQ


          WEEKLY CHART


ES/NQ Ten Day 60 minute chart

Support and Resistance Key. White Lines: multi price levels and trend lines, Yellow Lines: daily chart major price points, Solid Green/Red Lines: prior day high and lows,  Dotted Green/Red lines: pivot points, Light Blue Lines: prior unfilled gaps. Does not include overnight highs and lows. Price Points to watch.
  • 1866
  • 1859.50
  • 1845
  • 1839.75
  • 1830.50
  • 1809.25
  • 1807.50
  • 1800 
PRE MARKET THOUGHTS 
This a sample of how I do my market preparation. The night before I form a hypothesis of how I will approach the day if the market gaps up or down. Preparing the night before takes out all the emotion of possibly considering a trade when the markets open.
 
Trend Thoughts:  
  • Short term is neutral to bullish targeting pullbacks at support and shorts at resistance after this run. 1866 shows strong resistance and could be a tough break through. A break below 1809, which has strong support, could set up more selling. 
  • Longer Term remains in a bullish up trend. Weekly charts show support but still have room to the bottom of the weekly channel.

Thoughts on the Trading Day and the  Month: 
  • Day: 12th trading day: Historically neutral
  • Month: April has been the best DOW month. Past has shown to be a solid steady month. End of month weakness after tax deadline.

  • * Information taken from Stock Market Almanac and provided more for fun and not as a trading bias. (Trading Day 1, 2, 9, 10, 11, 19, 20 historically bullish. Trading Day 5, 14, 16  historically bearish.)

Reports: 10:00 AM pending home sales

Gap Fill Thoughts: 
  • Up Gap: Will consider fading an UP gap near 1863.50 with overnight support.
  • Down Gap: Will consider fading a down gap near 1851-1850.50 with overnight resistance.
  • Note: Always check pre-market to see if price is considered support or Resistance.

Flat Open:  may consider going long.

Gap and Go Thoughts: 

  • Up Gap: tempting but will pass. 
  • Down Gap: will not chase a short at the open unless clearly under 1850 with overnight overhead resistance.
  • Note: Always check pre-market to see if price is considered support or Resistance. 
 
Long or Short's to Consider after 15 Minutes

LONGS

Breakout/Pullback Long thoughts Will consider pullbacks at support or breakouts if clearly over 1857.50 with divergent support (above average volume and trending TICKS)Will consider BO's or pullbacks on a down gap coming strong off support with room to resistance.

Fading Long thoughts: 
  • Points to  target 1851 area and other points mentioned above with TICK divergence and average volume.
  • Notes: Prefer a a 5 point plus move into the location

SHORTS

Breakdown/Pullback Short thoughts: Will consider breakdowns and pullbacks if trading under 1850 without increased volume off support.  

Fading Short
thoughts:
 
  • Points to  target 1863.75 and other points mentioned above with TICK divergence and average volume.
  •  Notes: Prefer a a 5 point plus move into the location

Always study the overnight trading and mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading, pullbacks and breakout/breakdowns.



* You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.

No comments:

Disclaimer

I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES - I JUST POST TRADES I MAKE OR FIT THE RULES OF MY TRADING PLAN ON A DAILY BASIS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS! ALL CHARTS COURTESY OF TRADESTATION, SCHWAb & TD AMERITRADE