Saturday, March 1, 2014

Pre Market Thoughts Monday and Weekly Chart

ES/NQ Five Day 60 minute chart


 
ES WEEKLY 

Support and Resistance Key. White Lines: multi price levels and trend lines, Yellow Lines: daily chart major price points, Solid Green/Red Lines: prior day high and lows,  Dotted Green/Red lines: pivot points, Light Blue Lines: prior unfilled gaps. Does not include overnight highs and lows. Price Points to watch.
  • 1866
  • 1856.50
  • 1851
  • 1845
  • 1838.5
  • 1836.50
  • 1832.50
  • 1831.50
  • 1823
PRE MARKET THOUGHTS 
This a sample of how I do my market preparation. The night before I form a hypothesis of how I will approach the day if the market gaps up or down. Preparing the night before takes out all the emotion of possibly considering a trade when the markets open.
 
Trend Thoughts:  
  • Short term is bullish targeting pullbacks to the long side. Stay with the trend. 
  • Longer Term remains in a bullish up trend. ES wants to head to 1900. If you think about shorting...just peak at the weekly chart.

Thoughts on the Trading Day and the  Month: 
  • Day: 1st trading day: Historically Bullish
  • Month: March has shown Mid month strength and end of month weakness. This has been the theme of March  over the past 5 years. Historically the 3rd best month for the ES.
  • * Information taken from Stock Market Almanac and provided more for fun and not as a trading bias. (Trading Day 1, 2, 9, 10, 11, 19, 20 historically bullish. Trading Day 5, 14, 16  historically bearish.)

Reports: 10:00 ISM manufactoring

Gap Fill Thoughts: 
  • Up Gap: Will consider fading an UP gap near 1866.50 with overnight support. First trading day of a month has a historic bias for bullish. Don't force shorting on the 1st day.
  • Down Gap: Will consider fading a down gap near 1848 and 1845.25 and with overnight resistance.
  • Note: Always check pre-market to see if price is considered support or Resistance.

Flat Open:  Pass

Gap and Go Thoughts: 

  • Up Gap: May consider if clearly over 1866.50 and is considered support.
  • Down Gap: will not chase a short at the open unless clearly under 1845.25 with overhead resistance. Watch out for support below.
  • Note: Always check pre-market to see if price is considered support or Resistance.

Long or Short's to Consider after 15 Minutes

LONGS

Breakout/Pullback Long thoughts Will consider BO's or pullbacks on a down gap coming strong off support with room to yesterdays high. Will consider pullbacks at support or breakouts if clearly over 1857 and postive early on with divergence support (from volume and ticks)

Fading Long thoughts: 
  • Points to  target 1845.25 and other points mentioned above with divergence.
  • Notes: Prefer a a 5 point plus move into the location

SHORTS

Breakdown/Pullback Short thoughts: Will consider breakdowns and pullbacks if trading under 1845 without increased volume off support.  

Fading Short
thoughts:
 
  • Points to  target 1866.50 and other points mentioned above with light volume.
  •  Notes: Prefer a a 5 point plus move into the location

Always study the overnight trading and mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading, pullbacks and breakout/breakdowns.



* You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.

 

 


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Disclaimer

I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES - I JUST POST TRADES I MAKE OR FIT THE RULES OF MY TRADING PLAN ON A DAILY BASIS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS! ALL CHARTS COURTESY OF TRADESTATION, SCHWAb & TD AMERITRADE