Sunday, February 2, 2014

Pre Market Thoughts Monday and Weeky Charts

                             

ES weekly Chart


NQ weekly Chart

 ES Five Day 30 minute chart
Support and Resistance Key. White Lines: multi price levels and trend lines, Yellow Lines: daily chart major price points, Solid Green/Red Lines: prior day high and lows,  Dotted Green/Red lines: pivot points, Light Blue Lines: prior unfilled gaps. Does not include overnight highs and lows. Price Points to watch.
  • 1809.50
  • 1800
  • 1794
  • 1788.25
  • 1764.75
  • 1761
  • 1753.50
PRE MARKET THOUGHTS 
This a sample of how I do my market preparation. The night before I form a hypothesis of how I will approach the day if the market gaps up or down. Preparing the night before takes out all the emotion of possibly considering a trade when the markets open.
 
Trend Thoughts:  
  • Short term is neutral bearish targeting shorting under the trend line. Looking range bound between 1764 and 1788
  • Longer Term is at the bottom end of the bullish up trend. Next week could be interesting to see if the markets bounce or if this is a more deeper move.

Thoughts on the Trading Day and the  Month: 
  • Day: 1st trading day: Historically Bullish
  • Month: February ES shows no historical bullish or bearish bias. Weak January's have in the past signaled more bearish times to come.
  • * Information taken from Stock Market Almanac and provided more for fun and not as a trading bias. (Trading Day 1, 2, 9, 10, 11, 19, 20 historically bullish. Trading Day 5, 14, 16  historically bearish.)

Reports: 10:00 ISM manufacturing

Gap Fill Thoughts: 
  • Up Gap: Will consider fading an UP gap near 1788
  • Down Gap: Will consider fading a down gap near 1765
  • Note: Always check pre-market to see if price is considered support or Resistance.

Flat Open:  pass

Gap and Go Thoughts: 

  • Up Gap: Will pass
  • Down Gap: will pass, first day of the month is a tough day to short.
  • Note: Always check pre-market to see if price is considered support or Resistance.

Long or Short's to Consider after 15 Minutes

LONGS

Breakout/Pullback Long thoughts Will consider BO's or pullbacks on a down gap coming strong off support with room to yesterdays high. Will consider pullbacks  or Breakouts if clearly over 1781  

Fading Long thoughts: 
  • Points to  target 1764.75 and other points mentioned above with divergence.
  • Notes: Prefer a a 5 point plus move into the location

SHORTS

Breakdown/Pullback Short thoughts: Will consider breakdowns and pullbacks if trading under 1777 without increased volume off support.   

Fading Short
thoughts:
 
  • Points to  target 1788.25 and other points mentioned above with divergence.
  •  Notes: Prefer a a 5 point plus move into the location

Always study the overnight trading and mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading, pullbacks and breakout/breakdowns.



* You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.

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Disclaimer

I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES - I JUST POST TRADES I MAKE OR FIT THE RULES OF MY TRADING PLAN ON A DAILY BASIS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS! ALL CHARTS COURTESY OF TRADESTATION, SCHWAb & TD AMERITRADE