Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Pre Market Thoughts Wednesday


ES Five Day 30 minute chart

ES PRE MARKET THOUGHTS

This a sample of how I do my market preparation. The night before I form a hypothesis of how I will approach the day if the market gaps up or down. Preparing the night before takes out all the emotion of possibly considering a trade when the markets open. 

White Lines show the ES Price Levels and Trend Lines I will be paying attention to when considering a trade: Does not include overnight highs and lows.

  • 1800
  • 1791.50
  • 1783
  • 1772
  • 1765.50
  • 1754

Day Trading Pre Market Thoughts  

Trend Thoughts: Slow day with the FOMC statement tomorrow. Short term still neutral with the unfilled gap up to fill from Monday. Could break either way tomorrow.  Still have a trend line or two to get over. Longer term still in a neutral to semi-bullish longer trend. Could still pop up towards the high end of the year.

S&500 Sectors: Strong Sectors: XLI    Lagging Sectors: XLU  Notes: Many of the sectors sitting at support on their daily charts.

 

True Range Thoughts ES:  small range most likely until the 2pm FOMC statement and holidays arriving. 10- 14 point day with a break on either side.  

Reports: 2PM FOMC statement

Special Day Thoughts, Trading Day of the Month
12th trading day of the month, has no historic favor. December ES is usually the best trading  month for longs. * info taken from Stock Market Almanac, provided more for fun than for a day trading bias

Gap Fill Thoughts: Up Gap: Below the 1777 and resistance will consider otherwise a gap out of the range will pass.   Down Gap: may consider a fade off  Tuesday Low if support otherwise pass Notes: If sitting at support or resistance check pre-market to see if price is considered support or Resistance.

Flat Open Thoughts:  Pass

Gap and Go Thoughts:
Up Gap: Solid up gap over 1777 with support may consider going long at the open. Down Gap: Solid down gap below Tuesdays low with resistance my consider running with the gap short at the open  Notes: none

Thoughts on Long or Short Setups after 30 Minutes of Trading

(Always evaluate market after 30 minutes unless noted)

LONGS

Breakout thoughts for a 15, 30 or 60 minute breakout: Will consider BO's or pullbacks if trading solidly out of the short term trend or with a gap up that holds its gap or gap down and a strong bounce off support.  Notes:

Fading Long thoughts:
Will target the price points above with multiple support lines at there first test. Any intraday retest will pass. Areas to target 1763 and 1769 with a 5 point plus move. As always don't fade run away trains if bearish early, let the run play out. Always want to go long with the indexes at support and monitoring the components of the indexes to see if they are in agreement Notes:

SHORTS

Breakdown thoughts for a 15, 30 or 60 minute breakdown:  If trading under yesterdays close may consider pullback's to intraday support but not breakdowns. Notes:  near support on the daily and could bounce and trigger short squeeze. 

Fading Short
thoughts:
If within the price levels above after a 5 plus point trading range will consider at multiple resistant points. Will not fade a bounce off support with strong volume.
Targeting 1782, 1786 and 1791. Always want to short with the indexes at resistance and monitoring the components of the indexes to see if they are in agreement. Notes: Always mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading and breakout/breakdowns.

Always mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading and breakout/breakdowns.



* You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.

 


 

 

 


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Disclaimer

I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES - I JUST POST TRADES I MAKE OR FIT THE RULES OF MY TRADING PLAN ON A DAILY BASIS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS! ALL CHARTS COURTESY OF TRADESTATION, SCHWAb & TD AMERITRADE