Monday, December 16, 2013

Pre Market Thoughts Tuesday

ES Five Day 30 minute chart

ES PRE MARKET THOUGHTS

This a sample of how I do my market preparation. The night before I form a hypothesis of how I will approach the day if the market gaps up or down. Preparing the night before takes out all the emotion of possibly considering a trade when the markets open. 

White Lines show the ES Price Levels and Trend Lines I will be paying attention to when considering a trade: Does not include overnight highs and lows.

  • 1800
  • 1791.50 
  • 1786
  • 1783
  • 1773/1772
  • 1765.50
  • 1754

Day Trading Pre Market Thoughts  

Trend Thoughts: Short term moves to neutral with the unfilled gap up. Longer term still in a neutral to semi-bullish longer trend.Could still pop up towards the high end of the year.

S&P 500 Sectors: Strong Sectors: XLI    Lagging Sectors: XLU  Notes:

True Range Thoughts ES:  17 point range today could see a more modest, 12-15 point day with a breakdown to fill the gap or a smaller 10-12 point lazy range if we trend higher. 

Reports: 8:30 Core CPI

Special Day Thoughts, Trading Day of the Month:
12th trading day of the month, has no historic favor. December ES is usually the best trading  month for longs. * info taken from Stock Market Almanac, provided more for fun than for a day trading bias

Gap Fill Thoughts: Up Gap: Below the R1 pivot and resistance will consider and look to exit before PP pivot.   Down Gap: Will consider fading a down gap above S1 with support. Notes: If sitting at support or resistance check pre-market to see if price is considered support or Resistance.

Flat Open Thoughts: Pass wait 15 minutes

Gap and Go Thoughts:
Up Gap: Solid up gap over the yesterday's with support may consider going long at the open. Down Gap: will pass, wait 15 minutes and not chase short at open Notes: none

Thoughts on Long or Short Setups after 30 Minutes of Trading

(Always evaluate market after 30 minutes unless noted)

LONGS

Breakout thoughts for a 15, 30 or 60 minute breakout: Will consider BO's or pullbacks if trading solidly over the PP pivot with all 3 indexes in agreement or gap down and a strong bounce off support.  Notes:

Fading Long thoughts:
Will target the price points above with multiple support lines at there first test. Any intraday retest will pass. Areas to target 1662, 1772 and 1777 As always don't fade run away trains if bearish early, let the run play out. Always want to go long with the indexes at support and monitoring the components of the indexes to see if they are in agreement. Notes:

SHORTS

Breakdown thoughts for a 15, 30 or 60 minute breakdown:  If trading under yesterdays close may consider pullback's to intraday support but not breakdowns. Notes:  near support on the daily and could bounce and trigger short squeeze. 

Fading Short
thoughts:
If within the price levels above after a 5 plus point trading range will consider at multiple resistant points. Will not fade a bounce off support with strong volume. Targeting 1786 and 1791. Always want to short with the indexes at resistance and monitoring the components of the indexes to see if they are in agreement. Notes: Always mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading and breakout/breakdowns.

Always mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading and breakout/breakdowns.



* You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.

 


 

 

 


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Disclaimer

I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES - I JUST POST TRADES I MAKE OR FIT THE RULES OF MY TRADING PLAN ON A DAILY BASIS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS! ALL CHARTS COURTESY OF TRADESTATION, SCHWAb & TD AMERITRADE