Saturday, December 7, 2013

Pre Market Thoughts Monday and Weekly Charts

 
ESWeekly Chart 

       ES and NQ five Day 30 minute charts

ES PRE MARKET THOUGHTS

This a sample of how I do my market preparation. The night before I form a hypothesis of how I will approach the day if the market gaps up or down. Preparing the night before takes out all the emotion of possibly considering a trade when the markets open. 

White Lines show the ES Price Level areas I will be paying attention to when considering a trade:

  • 1808.50
  • 1806.25
  • 1801
  • 1798.5
  • 1795
  • 1787

Day Trading Pre Market Thoughts  

Trend Thoughts: Trend is long after bouncing off support on the daily chart.  The short trend bias is long after breaking out of the short term trend with a nice 20 point true range day. Re- test of all time highs could be in the cards. 
Weekly Charts still have ES heading toward to top of its channel at 1830ish by year end? I cant tell you how many people I come across over the past 2 years preaching about  the market should fall apart,economy stinks, now is the time to short, ect... Follow the charts.

S&P 500 Sectors: Strong Sectors: XLK    Lagging Sectors: XLU Notes:

 

True Range Thoughts ES:  Look for a 10-12 range with a moderate gap open.

Reports: none

 
Special Day Thoughts, Trading Day of the Month: 6th trading day of the month, shows no historic bias. December ES is usually the best trading  month for longs * info taken from Stock Market Almanac, provided more for fun than for a day trading bias

Gap Fill Thoughts:   Up Gap: I will pass on fading an up gap at the open, not saying it wont fill but don't see an edge the first 30 minutes with an up gap.  Down Gap: If price is above the S1 pivot and sitting at support will consider. Would like to be out before the PP pivot. Notes: If sitting at support/resistance check pre-market to see if price is considered support or Resistance. 

Flat open Thoughts:   I may consider the long off the PP pivot.

Gap and Go Thoughts: Up Gap: Solid up gap over the Fridays high with support may consider going long at the open. Down Gap: Only if under Fridays low, then may consider a fade off resistance. Be ware of support below and trend up.  Notes: none

Thoughts on Long or Short Setups after 30 Minutes of Trading

(Always evaluate after 30 minutes unless noted)

LONGS

Breakout thoughts for a 15, 30 or 60 minute breakout: Will favor pullbacks over a BO and looking for some type of continuation after breaking the short term trend  Notes:

Fading Long thoughts: In staying with the trend looking for fades off support (false breakdowns) near the price points stated above. Minimum 30 minute wait. As always don't fade run away trains if bearish early, let the run play out. Always want to go long with the indexes at support and monitoring the components of the indexes to see if they are in agreement. Notes:

SHORTS

Breakdown thoughts for a 15, 30 or 60 minute breakdown:  Will not consider any breakdowns unless extremely bearish for 30 minutes and below Fridays low with volume. Extremely bearish is breaking support levels with a long red 30 minute nasty down bar with volume. 

Will only consider shorting pullbacks with a gap down, price has traded solidly below the PP pivot after 30 minutes, and is considered resistance. If that scenario unfolds then I may consider shorting pullbacks on light volume provided the bounce is not coming off support with strong volume. Indexes must be working together Notes: Best not short with the market trend up

Fading Short
thoughts:
May consider fading 1812 with a true range over 10 or after a gap down fading the PP pivot after 30 minutes with a true range of 10 plus. Always want to short with the indexes at resistance and monitoring the components of the indexes to see if they are in agreement. Notes: Always mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading and breakout/breakdowns.

Always mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading and breakout/breakdowns.



* You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.

 

 

 


No comments:

Disclaimer

I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES - I JUST POST TRADES I MAKE OR FIT THE RULES OF MY TRADING PLAN ON A DAILY BASIS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS! ALL CHARTS COURTESY OF TRADESTATION, SCHWAb & TD AMERITRADE