Thursday, December 19, 2013

Pre Market Thoughts Friday


 ES & NQ Five Day 30 minute chart

ES PRE MARKET THOUGHTS


This a sample of how I do my market preparation. The night before I form a hypothesis of how I will approach the day if the market gaps up or down. Preparing the night before takes out all the emotion of possibly considering a trade when the markets open. 

White Lines show the ES Price Levels and Trend Lines I will be paying attention to when considering a trade: Does not include overnight highs and lows.

  • 1806
  • 1800
  • 1795.50
  • 1791.50
  • 1783
  • 1765.50
  • 1754

Day Trading Pre Market Thoughts  

Trend Thoughts: Short term is bullish with the bullish inside bar.  Will look to get long on an intra day pullback. I suspect new highs are in order by Xmas?
 
S&P 500 Sectors: Strong Sectors: XLI    Lagging Sectors: XLU  Notes: XLI alltime highs 

 

True Range Thoughts ES:  Look for a small range day 12-15. Could stay in the inside bar or break upwards near all-time highs.  

Reports: None

Special Day Thoughts, Trading Day of the Month:
14th trading day of the month is historically the 2nd weakest day of the month. December ES is usually the best trading  month for longs. * info taken from Stock Market Almanac, provided more for fun than for a day trading bias

Gap Fill Thoughts: Up Gap: May consider the fade near the 1805/1806 area or 1810/1811.  Down Gap: Will consider fading a down gap near 1796 and 1791 Notes: If sitting at support or resistance check pre-market to see if price is considered support or Resistance.

Flat Open Thoughts:  I may consider the long at 1801

Gap and Go Thoughts:
Up Gap: Solid up gap over 1807 with support from overnight, may consider going long at the open. Down Gap: Solid down gap below 1790.25 low with resistance my consider running with the gap short at the open  Notes: none

Thoughts on Long or Short Setups after 30 Minutes of Trading

(Always evaluate market after 30 minutes unless noted)

LONGS

Breakout thoughts for a 15, 30 or 60 minute breakout: Will consider BO's or pullbacks on a down gap coming strong off support with room to Wednesday High. Will not chase any other breakouts, Will consider pullbacks to support.  Notes:

Fading Long thoughts:
Major points to  target 1800, 1795,  1786.25 as possible areas to fade long at there first test. Any intra day retest will pass. Prefer a a 5 point plus move into the area. As always don't fade run away trains if bearish early, let the run play out. Always want to go long with the indexes at support and monitoring the components of the indexes to see if they are in agreement Notes:

SHORTS

Breakdown thoughts for a 15, 30 or 60 minute breakdown:  Will pass on breakdowns unless solidly under Thursdays low. Notes:  near support on the daily and could bounce and trigger short squeeze. 

Fading Short
thoughts:
Would consider a fade short at 1806, 1811, 1820 with a minimum 5 point run after a first test. Notes: Always mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading and breakout/breakdowns.

Always mark Support/Resistance and confluence zones that could be used for targets, fading and breakout/breakdowns.



* You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.

 


 

 

 


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I DO NOT MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES - I JUST POST TRADES I MAKE OR FIT THE RULES OF MY TRADING PLAN ON A DAILY BASIS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE - YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR TRADES, INVESTMENTS, AND DECISIONS! ALL CHARTS COURTESY OF TRADESTATION, SCHWAb & TD AMERITRADE