Monday, November 11, 2013

Tuesday Pre Market Thoughts ES

ES and NQ five day 30 minute charts

 ES PRE MARKET THOUGHTS
This a sample of how I do my market preparation. The night before I form a hypothesis of how I will approach the day if the market gaps up or gaps down. Preparing the night before takes out all the emotion and once I see the morning gaps I then refer to my plan for the day. 

White Lines show the Price Levels I will be paying attention to tomorrow along with the highs and lows of the day and pivots:
  • 1770.50
  • 1762.50
  • 1759.50
  • 1752
  • 1750.50
Day Trading Pre Market Thoughts

Trend Thoughts: Uneventful day with the holiday. Still favoring Long with an eye on the NQ and the red candle from 2 days ago that still sticks out and may portray a signal to beware. While the ES is above the 10SMA the NQ is not.  NQ is banging on the bottom of the channel that it was in for over a week. More of a mixed market playing support/resistance.

Trading Day of the Month: Day 8

Special Day or Thoughts: Indexes show a NR7. Narrows day of the last 7 and could get a pop in movement. 

Gap Fill Thoughts:  Up Gap: If price is below the R1 Pivot and the pivot is considered resistance will consider the short.Down Gap: If price is above the low and has solid support will consider the long at the open. Notes:

Gap and Go Thoughts: Up Gap: If the Index's gap solidly over R1 pivot (which I would then consider support) I will consider running with the index long at the open. Down Gap: If the 3 index's have a bearish gap down under yesterdays lows, will look to short and go with the gap with an eye on support levels.  Notes: none

Breakout thoughts for a 15, 30 or 60 minute breakout: Solidly over the R1 pivot or if testing it multiple times will consider. \ I suspect the shorts have stops sitting atop today's highs that could give a trust up....weather it holds is another story.  Would need all three index's in agreement to attempt a BO. Notes: none

Breakdown thoughts for a 15, 30 or 60 minute breakdown: Will only consider if trading below yesterdays lows. Would have to be a nice setup among the 3 indexes where their is room to run to support Notes: none

Fade Long thoughts: In staying with the trend looking for fades off support (false breakdowns) off the low of yesterday or possible lunch time fades on a double bottom. Minimum 30 minute wait.  Always want to go long with the indexes at support and monitoring the components of the indexes to see if they are in agreement. Notes: If a break below yesterdays lows don't get in front of run away trains. 

Fade Short thoughts: Will stay away, with a NR7 day and shorts keeping stops over todays highs not worth the risk no matter how tempting. Always want to short with the indexes at resistance and monitoring the components of the indexes to see if they are in agreement. Notes: none

* You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.



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