Sunday, October 27, 2013

E-Mini ES Monday market thoughts


ES Weekly Chart: Still in the up channel heading to 1800?

 ES 30 Minute 5 day chart

 ES PRE MARKET THOUGHTS
This a sample of how I do my market preparation. The night before I form a hypothesis of how I will approach the day if the market gaps up or gaps down. Preparing the night before takes out all the emotion and once I see the morning gaps I then refer to my plan for the day. 

White Lines show the Price Levels I will be paying attention to tomorrow along with the Highs and lows of the day and pivots:
  • 1742.25
  • 1734.50
  • 1728.5 (previous gap fill, semi-support, if not for a gap fill wouldn't consider. Could run down to 1717.50 before bouncing)
  • 1717.50
Trend and Trades I May Consider

Trend: Staying Long unless there is a nasty down gap below the lows of Friday. 

Gap Fill or Gap and Go: Will look for Gap Fills on an up gap below the R1 pivot or above yesterdays lows using support. If the Index's gap solidly over the R1 pivot (which I would then consider support) I will consider running with the index long at the open. If the 3 index's have a bearish gap down, under yesterdays lows, will look to short  and go with the gap with an eye on support levels. 

Long: looking for false breakdowns off support levels.Will consider a BO with a modest down gap and the goal to retest the highs.  Would need all three index's in agreement to attempt a BO over the R1 pivot early and would lean towards the NQ. A gap over the R1 pivot that holds would still stay away from Breakouts.

Short: No Fades short unless  an up gap then will consider a fake BO at either the R1 or R2 pivot with the ES or YM. Nasty gap surprising the Bulls then may consider Breakdowns but aware of support areas.

* You don't have to trade everyday. If the conditions don't feel right or if you're unsure of the current days trading environment then PASS on the trade. Missed money is better than lost money.  Day trading and the stock market is not a "war" that you must win at all cost. Trading should be fun, wait for only the good setups. Follow your rules, stick to your stops, and know that everyday the market presents a new chess board.





 

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